KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 27 — Sentiment toward Malaysia’s ringgit is finally turning around. The currency rose more than any other in emerging markets as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak was cleared in a corruption probe and oil traded 16 per cent off its lowest in more than decade.
The currency strengthened for a fourth day in the longest stretch of gains since September as Brent crude pared losses. The ringgit extended an advance beyond its 100-day moving average, a bullish signal for a currency that’s appreciated this month while most Asian counterparts weakened. With Najib now able to give his full attention to an economy hit by a slump in commodities, focus will be on Thursday’s budget revisions for a clearer picture on the outlook.
“With the political risk out of the way, sentiment has improved,” said Nizam Idris, head of foreign-exchange and fixed— income strategy at Macquarie Bank Ltd in Singapore. ”Oil is also a big factor” and a rally in the benchmark stock index indicates investors think the budget “won’t be too negative.”
The ringgit rose 1.3 per cent to 4.2380 a dollar as of 2:26pm in Kuala Lumpur and reached the year’s high of 4.2375, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. The currency has strengthened 1.3 per cent versus the dollar in January, compared with a 2.7 per cent loss in the Indian rupee and the South Korean won’s 2.5 per cent decline.
Najib Probe
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index of shares climbed 0.3 per cent, adding to the 1.6 per cent advance in the past two days. While the ringgit fell 19 per cent in its biggest annual loss since 1997 last year, analysts are forecasting a less protracted slide in 2016. The currencywill weaken to 4.41 per dollar, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
Malaysia’s Attorney-General said on Tuesday that there was no evidence of wrongdoing by Najib over a US$681 million (RM2.08 billion) “personal donation” from the Saudi royal family.
The money was transferred in early 2013 before the general election, Attorney General Tan Sri Mohamed Apandi Ali told reporters, citing investigations by the anti-graft agency. Najib returned US$620 million in August that year that was not utilised, Apandi said.
The budget amendments will include measures to reduce operating expenditure and plans to privatise some projects, Secretary General of Treasury Mohd Irwan Serigar Abdullah said on January 13. Najib seeks to trim the fiscal shortfall to 3.1 per cent of gross domestic product this year from an estimated 3.2 per cent in 2015. The slide in Brent to around US$31 a barrel has prompted a government rethink as this year’s spending and revenue plans assume a price of US$48.
The deficit goal will likely be revised slightly higher, said Khoon Goh, a senior currency strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd in Singapore. A new growth estimate for 2016 may also be announced from the current 4 per cent to 5 per cent, he said.
“The ringgit’s near-term fortunes remain tied to oil price developments, and further strength is dependent on the ability of oil prices to rally,” said Goh.
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