KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 10 — As Malaysia’s top court decides today whether to uphold an earlier Court of Appeal ruling to overturn Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Sodomy II acquittal, the million-ringgit question on the minds of supporters and critics alike isn’t really if he will go to jail, but what happens next.

Pakatan Rakyat (PR) leaders have so far avoided deliberating on key issues plaguing their respective party leaderships and have chosen instead to wait for today’s court decision before deciding on their next move.

Crucial issues like DAP’s proposal to reintroduce local council election and PAS’s renewed push for hudud law in Kelantan have not been addressed and will not go away whether or not Anwar is a free man.

If Anwar is jailed, PR will will use the decision as fodder to garner political points and deflect public attention and criticism over its inability to put its house in order.

Anwar’s possible imprisonment will allow PR to delay addressing the hudud and third vote issue, as well as who should lead the seven-year-old federal opposition coalition.

But if Anwar is acquitted, there will be immediate pressure on PR to resolve its outstanding issues and with the Sodomy II case out of the way, they will have no choice but to actually sit down and figure matters out.

Who leads Pakatan?

PR needs a succession plan, and this needs to be carried out regardless of whether Anwar is jailed or otherwise.

Anwar should no longer be the only prime minister-in-waiting in PR. Other younger leaders need to be groomed to eventually take his place.

The difficulty in deciding on who next lies in the fact that Anwar remains the only leader the three political parties, divided by stark political and ideological differences, can agree on.

But whispers of possible candidates to replace the opposition chief have already been identified, with the most likely candidate so far PKR deputy president and Selangor mentri besar Azmin Ali.

If Anwar does go to jail, the other question is who will contest his Permatang Pauh seat. Will the seat be given to a fresh face, or will it be contested again by his wife and PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail?

Some party members have privately expressed their dissatisfaction with the second option, as Dr Wan Azizah had already contested and won the Kajang state seat last year in Anwar’s stead.

Quick recap of events

Since he was first charged with sodomising ex-aide Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan in 2008, party colleagues, allies and even international rights groups have argued that the case and subsequent conviction of Anwar are attempts by the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition to permanently end the political career of the man once dubbed the “Comeback Kid.”

His conviction will snuff his dream of taking over Putrajaya, in addition to crippling the PR opposition bloc.

The entire Sodomy II trial proceedings for the past six years have been dramatic to say the least amid repeated allegations by Anwar’s lawyers of evidence tampering and abuse of power.

Anwar surprised many people during the the federal hearing in October last year by appointing former Federal Court judge Datuk Seri Gopal Sri Ram as his lead counsel alongside a 14-man defence team. Gopal squared off against lead counsel for the prosecution and well-know Umno lawyer Tan Sri Muhammad Shafee Abdullah.

The federal hearing was presided over by a five-member panel led by Chief Justice Tun Arifin Zakaria. Others included Court of Appeal president Tan Sri Md Raus Sharif and Federal Court judges Tan Sri Abdul Hamid Embong, Tan Sri Suriyadi Halim Omar and Datuk Ramly Ali.

Back in November, after having heard submissions from both sides for a week, the panel had decided to reserve judgment on the matter to a later date.

What happens if the Federal Court decides to send Anwar to prison?

End of Anwar’s political career

It will almost certainly be the end for Anwar’s storied and colourful political career. Although the 67-year old hardened politician is no stranger to spending time behind bars, this possible conviction could not have come at a worst time for him as well as for PR whose allies DAP and PAS have been displaying increasingly open hostilities against disagreements over key policy issues.

Although some PR politicians like PKR’s Chua Tian Chang has said that Anwar can still effectively lead PR from prison, the fact remains that it would be quite impossible for the PKR de facto chief to realise his dream of PR taking over Putrajaya sitting behind  bars.

The conviction would also end Anwar’s ambition of becoming prime minister. The closest he ever got to bagging the country’s top job was back when he was deputy prime minister and in Umno, serving under now-nemesis Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed who subsequently sacked him in 1998 over allegations of corruption.

Repercussions for BN

BN is not the dominant coalition it used to be back before 2008. In the 12^th and 13^th general election, the BN coalition suffered its worst electoral defeat, losing not only its traditional two-thirds parliamentary majority but also the popular vote.

A conviction for Anwar could see BN having to deal with short-term protests by PR’s supporters and at an unfavourable time when  the ruling coalition hopes to introduce new measures to tackle a weakening economy as a result of a global dip in oil prices.

In short, on a political level at least, the verdict on Anwar’s sodomy case today is set to have some repercussions on not just the opposition leader but also on his allies and foes alike.