TUMPAT, Sept 25 — Today’s Pengkalan Kubor by-election will be the acid test of Datuk Ahmad Yakob’s popularity as the new Kelantan PAS Mentri Besar after succeeding the party’s much revered but ailing spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat last year.

Ahmad, who is overseeing an election as the party’s top state leader for the first time, faces the tough task of luring the supporters of the seat’s popular three-term incumbent, the late Datuk Noor Zahidi of Umno, into PAS’s fold.

Observers said today’s polls outcome will tell just how receptive Kelantanese are of Ahmad’s leadership so far.

PAS had hoped that with fielding Wan Rosdi Wan Ibrahim, a local with a long track record of serving the constituency, it could bank in on voters’ familiarity with the candidate, an important factor in a highly communal state like Kelantan.

Umno, however, also employed a similar strategy – by fielding a local, Mat Razi Mat Ail, who is also said to be highly popular among the locals.

The duo will also be competing against an independent, Izat Bukhary Ismail, although analysts believe his presence will not make much or any impact at all in a constituency like Pengkalan Kubor, where most of its 24,000 voters are either with PAS or Umno.

Analysts like Khoo Kay Peng had previously noted that this factor would give Umno a slight advantage as incumbency would have provided the party three terms to consolidate its networks within the constituency.

Noor’s charming personality and “generosity” have also contributed to Umno’s popularity among the electorate here, locals polled by Malay Mail Online said, which could prove to be helpful for Mat Razi and the party’s efforts to retain the seat.

Umno also saw its campaign bolstered by the absence of PAS heavyweights, most of whom were away for the party’s muktamar last week.

PAS campaign workers speaking to Malay Mail Online admitted that that, coupled with Nik Aziz’s sudden exit from the campaigning trail following his worsening health, became a major setback for the Islamist party’s election efforts.

In a report by Bernama, analyst from Universiti Teknologi Mara Dungun Che Hamdan Che Mohd Razali noted that PAS’s insistence on having Nik Aziz in their campaign exposed Ahmad Yakob’s poor clout among Kelantan voters.

But PAS have been beefing up its campaign after its muktamar ended on Sunday, mobilising its top leaders and featuring them in ceramah events for the past three days.

Analysts like Samsu Adabi Mamat of UiTM had noted that PAS’s capitalisation of the oil royalty issue for its campaign had gained traction and this has help PAS improve its chances.

But Samsu also admitted that Barisan Nasional’s (BN) candidate still remains the favourite to win.

The Election Commission said yesterday the Pengkalan Kubor state seat by-election results is expected to be announced at 9pm.

There are 24,039 registered voters here. The constituency, which is predominantly Malay, has other small communities which are Siamese (1,653 voters) and Chinese (262 voters).