PETALING JAYA, Sept 2 — The chances of El Nino’s occurrence in Malaysia have been revised to 50 per cent because of a cooling of sea temperatures, based on the latest weather review released by the Meteorological Department (MET).

The department’s deputy director-general, Alui Bahari, said weather models showed El Nino’s probability was decreasing.

“Even if El Nino occurs, it will have no effect on Malaysia’s weather as it is predicted to be very weak,” he said.

The review stated that the Oceanic Nino Index, which is the standard used by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to identify El Niño events in the tropical Pacific, as recording a reading of 0.1°C for June.

For an occurrence of El Nino to be verified, five consecutive three-month periods should show a sea surface temperature of above 0.5°C.

According to the review, the states in Peninsular Malaysia are predicted to receive rainfall from 100 to 200mm in September and 100 to 250mm in October.

For Sabah and Sarawak, rain is predicted to be slightly below average levels, with 100mm to 200mm of rain expected in September and 50 to 300mm in October.

Alui said the rainy season would begin around the end of October as Malaysia transitioned out of the current monsoon season.

According to the department’s National Weather Centre, drier weather conditions are expected next week.

An officer from the centre said this followed data that showed slowing speeds of wind across the nation.

“We predict mostly fair weather conditions throughout the Klang Valley for the next seven days,” she said.

For Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur, rain is only expected today in the form of isolated storms, while Selangor is predicted to have isolated rain over coastal areas over the weekend.

Boosted by heavy rainfall over the past week, the Sungai Selangor dam recorded a water level of 33.13 per cent on Saturday, a 1.29 per cent increase over the previous Saturday’s level.

Good to moderate Air Pollutant Index (API) levels were recorded across the country at 4pm, with Seremban posting the highest reading of 76  while Tawau, Sabah, had a reading of just 19.