KUALA LUMPUR, March 1 — Following Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud’s retirement from active politics, the predominantly Melanau-based Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold of Balingian has become the focus of political pundits.

With the dust settled on who will be replacing Abdul Taib as the Chief Minister, all eyes are now on Balingian that could serve as the proving ground for the new chief minister and Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) president Tan Sri Adenan Satem.

Balingian, a BN-PBB stronghold for over 40 years, will see a by-election soon. Now the guessing game on the candidate for the Balingian state seat has begun.

Melanau-majority seat

Obviously, the candidate has to be a Melanau. There are about 130,000 Melanaus in Sarawak, about six per cent of the overall population with a sizeable Melanau population from different faiths — Christians, Muslims and traditional believers — found in Mukah-Balingian area.

Several names have been mentioned and speculated as the Barisan Nasional forerunner candidate for the Balingian by-election.

Top on the candidate list is former Federal Minister Datuk Seri Effendi Norwawi and Taib’s eldest son, Datuk Seri Mahmud Abu Bekir but both have ruled out their interest on the seat.

Effendi had issued a statement to local media in Sarawak stating that he is not keen while Bekir personally told reporters in Kuching few days ago that it was still too early for him to be involved seriously in politics as he was busy with his business.

With the heavyweights staying out, party insiders said the list has narrowed to few names, which include an engineer Andrian Alphonsus Dorhan, a businessman Paul Druce, former permanent secretary for Tourism Ministry Sarawak Akit Sebli and Dr Anthony Valentine Laiseh, former Deputy Resident of Mukah and currently Deputy Resident of Betong. There is also talks that a graduate in his 30s with his identity being closely guarded is also in the list.

The candidate is likely to be known by next week when the party under new president Tan Sri Adenan Satem holds its supreme council meeting to make their pick.

The traditional arrangement and gentlemen understanding

Political observers believe for this by-election, the party is likely to field a Melanau-Christian as part of the traditional arrangement inherited by PBB from its predecessor Barisan Rakyat Jati Sarawak (BARJASA).

“The understanding since the days of Barjasa on the seat allocation involving Mukah area is that at least one seat should be given to the Melanau-Christians,” said former state assemblyman for Balingian Datuk Salleh Japaruddin.

Barjasa merged with Parti Negara Sarawak resulting in Parti Bumiputera which eventually merged with Parti Pesaka Anak Sarawak (PESAKA) to become Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu Sarawak (PBB) on April 30, 1973 with the former representing Muslim Melanaus and the later Malanaus of other faiths.

Salleh, former PBB vice-president and Taib’s second cousin explained that the Dalat and Balingian state seat under the Mukah parliamentary constituency, is represented by Datuk Fatimah Abdullah and Taib.

respectively while the Mukah parliamentary seat is represented by Dr Muhammad Leo Michael Toyad Abdullah.

Support to increase due to new face factor

According to a senior lecturer from Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS) Dr Jeniri Amir, whoever the party picks, PBB would retain the seat easily.

“For this by-election, I believe the BN candidate can easily get between 85-90 per cent of the votes. The reason is very simple, past records show each time a new candidate debuts the support increases,” he said.

While many political observers believe the outcome of Balingian by-election is a forgone conclusion favouring BN, it is still a good testing ground for new state leadership helmed by Adenan.

Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi from UNIMAS’s Institute of East Asian Studies explained the Balingian by-election would reflect the grassroots’ acceptance of the new Chief Minister as the constituency is made up of different ethnic groups though it is predominantly Melanau.

“It could serve as the testing ground for the new state leadership to introduce new faces and test acceptance level before the state elections due in mid-2016,” Awang said. — Bernama