KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 — Growing Christian discontent over the prolonged “Allah” row could cost the Barisan Nasional (BN) in the Sarawak election just two years away, said political analysts who differed over the exact toll on the coalition’s so-called “vote bank”.

Prof Dr Jayum A. Jawan, a political analyst from Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM), noted that the anger among Christians in Sarawak — who recently saw their bibles seized by Selangor Islamic religious authorities on the community’s supplier, Bible Society of Malaysia (BSM) — could lead them to vote for the opposition in protest.

“They are not happy because the terms and conditions of the formation of Malaysia have been violated and the leaders are not representing their voice,” Jayum told The Malay Mail Online, alluding to the religious freedom promised to Sarawak before it agreed to be part of Malaysia in 1963.

Although Sarawak polls results do not usually reflect sentiments towards the federal government’s policies, Putrajaya’s failure to enforce its own 10-point solution issued ahead of the previous state election in 2011 could lead voters to punish state BN leaders at the ballot box this time, Jayum noted.

The 10-point solution issued by the Najib administration allowed for bibles in Malay and indigenous languages to be printed, imported and distributed nationwide with certain conditions imposed for Peninsula Malaysia. 

Despite the growing dissatisfaction, however, Jayum said BN should still maintain its supermajority in the state if it keeps eight-term Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud as its head.

“There are some challenges but he might be able to pull it off, because Taib Mahmud is seen as a state leader protecting state rights,” he said, saying that Sarawak residents do not want Umno — a Malay-Muslim political party founded in the Peninsula — to dominate the east Malaysian state’s politics.

Swings in marginal seats

Dr Faisal Hazis, a political scientist from Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas), said the “Allah” issue could tip the balance in evenly-fought seats, which he said have increased since the 2011 state polls.

But he also said local development and economic issues such as the rising cost of living, employment prospects, the upcoming Goods and Services Tax (GST) would ultimately be the deciding factors in Sarawak.

“Because in 2011, despite ‘Allah’ and Alkitab (issue) being played up, you don’t see en bloc voting by Christians to Pakatan (Rakyat) and the opposition,” he said, referring to the uneasy standoff between the federal government and Christians over impounded bibles with the word “Allah”, which were released after Putrajaya issued a 10-point solution just days ahead of the 2011 polls.

Dr Arnold Puyok, a senior lecturer in Unimas, said it was also “too early” to predict the effect of the “Allah” issue on the Sarawak polls that must be held by 2016, but added that it was a “secondary” concern for voters who care more about “bread-and-butter” issues.

“As far as I can see, support for BN is still solid. The opposition can capitalise on the issue to win support but I doubt the voters — especially from the rural areas — will react positively to it,” he said, noting that religious issues seldom feature prominently in polls.

“Politicians should stop harping on religious issues because doing so will only divide the country further,” the academic added.

Just a ‘Semenanjung’ problem?

Jayum viewed the ban on the non-Muslim use of the word “Allah” as a “Semenanjung” or Peninsular Malaysia problem, but conceded that it risked spilling over to east Malaysia.

“The issue is in Semenanjung, issue is not so much for Sabah and Sarawak, the fear is it’ll go over if it is not resolved amicably. It will, in the long run, affect them because you can’t have two kinds of law, one for Sabah and Sarawak, one for Semenanjung. We can’t have double standards,” Jayum said.

Arnold said both Sabah and Sarawak have not been affected because of Putrajaya’s “guarantee” that the two states may continue using the word “Allah”, but broadened religious enforcement in some states may put the sizeable east Malaysian and largely Christian population working in the peninsula at risk of running foul of the laws here.

“Will they be hauled up for using the word? Or will the state conduct a massive raid on churches predominantly attended by Sabah and Sarawak congregation?” he asked.

On January 3, the Selangor Islamic Religious Department raided the BSM and seized over 300 copies of indigenous language bibles. Before that, it announced plans to direct churches in the state to refrain from using “Allah” in their worship.

Under the Selangor Non-Islamic Religions (Control of Propagation Among Muslims) Enactment 1988, which was then passed by the BN state government, non-Muslims are prohibited from using 35 Arabic words and phrases in their faith, including “Allah”, “Nabi” (prophet), “Injil” (gospel) and “Insya’Allah” (God willing).

The Selangor law is also not unique. Except for Sabah, Sarawak, Penang and the Federal Territories, all other states have similar enactments that ban non-Muslims from using a list of Arabic words and phrases in their faith, including the word “Allah”.

What will the churches do?

While churches previously couched their words on the subject with diplomacy, they have become increasingly open in voicing their unhappiness.

In a sign of the growing fallout last Sunday, a Sarawak group representing 6,000 Iban-speaking Christian congregations called the bible seizures in Selangor a blatant attempt to restrict their access to their holy scriptures in the Malay language and Bahasa Iban, while voicing fear that they would be “persecuted and prosecuted” for practising their faith.

“It boils down to how much churches will advise and deal with this issue,” Faisal said, saying that churches had not openly campaigned about the “Allah” and “Alkitab” issue during the 2011 elections in Sarawak, but had called their members to vote for a government that is “transparent” and “upholds their religious freedom”.

Noting the churches’ “wide network” in Sarawak, Jayum asked: “The issue is, are the churches more influential or the political parties more influential?”

According to Jayum, 90 per cent of the indigenous Dayaks — who form 45 per cent of Sarawak’s population — are Christians, while the mostly-Christian Chinese and Ibans form around 28 per cent and 30 per cent of the state’s population.

According to the 2010 population census, the three largest religious groups in Sarawak’s 2.4 million-strong population are the predominantly-indigenous Christians at over 1 million, followed by Muslims at 710,815 and the Buddhists at 328,280. Muslims only account for roughly one-third of the state’s population.

In the April 16, 2011 elections, the federal opposition Pakatan Rakyat made further inroads into the country’s largest state, picking up 15 of the 71 state seats, but BN retained its two-thirds majority by winning 55 seats despite losing seven seats from its 62-seat haul in 2006.

A five-year-old court dispute over whether the Arabic word for God, “Allah” is exclusive to Muslims as over 60 per cent of the religion’s followers here believe has drawn deep lines in Malaysia, with the country’s dominant Malay-Muslims on one side and its sizeable Buddhists, Christians, Sikhs, Hindus and Taoists on the other side.

The case is now pending a March 5 hearing for leave of appeal at the Federal Court, after being initially fixed for February 24.