KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 5 — Barisan Nasional’s (BN) failure to retake Sungai Limau shows the ruling coalition has yet to fully conquer Kedah, but analysts say yesterday’s polls battle has helped its fragmented anchor party, Umno, reseal the chinks in its armour after divisive elections this year.

Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir does not appear to have snagged the people’s confidence as yet, five months after taking office as Kedah mentri besar, two political scientists told The Malay Mail Online last night following BN’s loss in the Sungai Limau by-election.

But the ruling coalition had been battling against insurmountable odds as the Kedah farming constituency is a PAS stronghold and the loss should not be seen as a tactical failure or weakness in Mukhriz’s leadership during the campaign, the political analysts added.

“If we look at Mukhriz’s effort for the campaign, it was at its maximum level... Even if BN lost, it was out of anybody’s hands,” Prof Dr Shamsul Adabi Mamat, a political analyst from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, told The Malay Mail Online in the aftermath of the by-election.

“A loss means no luck for BN. Even with everything they did, the people still do not want BN.”

Prof Dr Jayum Jawan of Universiti Putra Malaysia agreed with Shamsul, saying that not only are Sungai Limau voters not ready for Umno and BN, but they are also not ready for Mukhriz.

“The area is like the “tiger’s den”. It was Azizan’s place and both sides have admitted his leadership and sentiment for him was really strong,” said Jayum, referring to the late Tan Sri Azizan Razak.

Azizan, who was also Mukhriz’s predecessor in the mentri besar post, had been the incumbent assemblyman in Sungai Limau for five terms before his death in September.

Since wresting Kedah back from a one-term PAS rule under Azizan, Mukhriz had attempted to also win Sungai Limau as a symbolic victory, pledging to even “adopt” the seat should BN win.

Sungai Limau voters had sent Mukhriz a message as PAS managed to keep its hold on the farming constituency in Kedah state yesterday, but saw its vote majority slashed to a mere 1,084 votes.

The Islamist party’s candidate, 37-year-old Mohd Azam Abdul Samat scored 12,069 votes, besting the BN’s Dr Ahmad Sohaimi Lazim who drew 10,985 votes.

Shamsul drew a parallel between Mukhriz’s leading the campaign in Sungai Limau and his contest for Umno’s vice-presidency, both against the odds, and both a moral victory for the Umno man despite consequently losing them.

“As a mentri besar and head of the campaigning machinery, he had done the best. I’d say the campaign itself was dominated two-thirds by Umno,” said Shamsul.

“After the polls, Umno seemed to have worked hard: Pemuda, Puteri, Wanita wings, as if they’ve got new wind. This kind of effort will keep the unity in the party.”

Jayum also agreed that voters would likely appreciate Mukhriz’s vigour in his first by-election since the May polls, noting that his father Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s presence had been largely missing.

“This shows that his influence is declining. The leadership of Najib together with Muhyiddin has grown strong on the right track,” said Jayum, referring to Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

Both Najib and Muhyiddin kept their posts in Umno uncontested during internal election, while party members chose to largely keep the status quo.

“In this by-election, he had not been in the limelight. Maybe because he wanted to witness Mukhriz’s leadership,” Shamsul added.

Just a day before the polls, one of his fiercest critics and long-time rival Lim Kit Siang had predicted Dr Mahathir’s waning influence on Malaysian politics should BN fail to grab Sungai Limau.

Even as Dr Mahathir made a last-minute campaign appearance for BN in Kedah, Lim pointed out that the former prime minister had failed to prevent him from winning the Gelang Patah federal seat in the May 5 general election, and his son Mukhriz had lost his bid for the vice-presidency in the recent Umno party polls.

Analysts had also claimed last month that Dr Mahathir’s silence in the aftermath of his son’s loss during the Umno polls was not a surprise, as it’s time the once all-powerful former prime minister should finally admit to his declining influence.

The PAS win in Sungai Limau, however, does not change the power composition in Kedah, which has returned to BN rule after falling to the three-party Pakatan Rakyat (PR) pact for one term in 2008.

During the May 5 polls this year, a total 24,349 voters turned out and PAS had won with a comfortable 2,774-vote majority.