KUALA LUMPUR, July 3 — Defeat at the upcoming Kuala Besut by-election would be ominous for Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Barisan Nasional (BN) on the back of the coalition’s worst-ever showing at Election 2013, leaders of Malay rights groups proclaimed yesterday.

Already on the ropes following the bruising general election, Najib is also facing the possibility that he may be challenged for the Umno presidency during the party polls in November.

“A loss will give a great slap to the government’s legitimacy ... Anything can happen, so the impact will be huge because we have just finished the 13^th general election,” Roslan Mohamad, the secretary-general of Kelantan rights NGO Pakatan Darul Naim, told The Malay Mail Online here.

“If the possibility happens, it would be a grave omen,” echoed Maj Gen (Rtd) Datuk Mohd Yunus Long, the president of Armoured Corp Pensioners’ Club.

Kuala Besut is considered an Umno stronghold, with the party having won there with comfortable margins of over 2,000 votes in the two previous elections.

But the Malay rights groups under the Malay Consultative Council (MPM) umbrella warned the party yesterday not to take this for granted. It urged Putrajaya to “act strictly” on opposition media and “cybertroopers”, saying these publicity tools could cost BN the Kuala Besut by-election if left unchecked.

MPM’s steering committee chairman Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Hilmi Ismail alleged of a concerted effort to stir issues that would paint the government in a bad light, and a loss would confirm the negative public view.

“It will validate the perception that Umno is weak ... If Umno loses its stronghold, it is not good. Its image will be stained,” Hilmi told The Malay Mail Online.

Prof James Chin, a political analyst from Monash University Sunway, also shared the outlook and warned that a loss would haunt Najib as his rivals and detractors will hone in on the point.

Najib’s post as Umno chairman ― and, by extension, prime minister ― could hinge on the by-election result, as the Malay nationalist party will hold its internal polls later this year.

His contemporaries in Umno have pledged to leave the posts of chairman and deputy chairman uncontested, but a challenge might yet be seen, especially after BN’s dismal result in the May polls.

In the general election, BN not only failed to recapture its coveted parliamentary supermajority but also lost further ground to Pakatan Rakyat (PR), when it took 133 seats to the opposition pact’s 89.

It also nearly lost Terengganu, surviving with just a two-seat lead in the assembly over PR’s 15.

But Umno’s own performance in Election 2013, winning 88 federal seats versus the 79 it took in 2008, may provide Najib some reprieve.

Najib took over as Umno president and prime minister in April 2009 after predecessor Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi stepped down following BN’s previous low in Election 2008.

And despite the potentially momentous outcome from the Kuala Besut by-election, analysts believe its effects will unlikely be felt outside of the state’s border.

A PAS win will see both BN and PR each holding 16 state seats and neither the majority. In this case, Terengganu Sultan Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin will be obliged to choose the new mentri besar whom he believes commands the confidence of the majority of the assembly.

“Najib is fairly safe in Umno election,” Chin conceded. “I don’t think they really care ... Terengganu is a Malay heartland state, but it is not as important economically, nor symbolically, as Selangor, Penang, and Johor.”

Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani, a political analyst with Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), concurred, saying that the effect on national Umno leadership is minimal.

“The effect will be more towards Terengganu,” said Azizuddin, referring to the party’s state division and mentri besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Said.

“The latest result has already reflected on his leadership ... If BN loses, it will further damage his reputation.”

The late BN Kuala Besut assemblyman Dr A. Rahman Mokhtar had won by a 2,434-vote majority in May. BN had won with a bigger majority of 2,631 votes in 2008.

Dr Rahman died in Kuala Terengganu from lung cancer on Wednesday last week, triggering the by-election that must be held before August 27.