NOVEMBER 1 — The most important political battle on earth will reach its conclusion next week. But what does it mean to us in Asia? Does it mean anything different if one wins over the other?
I think the answer remains a solid yes.
America remains by quite a distance the most powerful nation on earth. It has the largest economy, the mightiest military and exerts global cultural and political power. So, what happens there is felt everywhere.
American elections, therefore, are always important and this one is particularly so for a single reason — Donald Trump.
Arguably the most divisive US leader in modern history, he has polarised the US electorate. You really either love him or hate him
The issue here is that Trump really is something different.
For years, US voters have chosen between Democrat and Republican candidates in a two-party system. And while the two parties differed on certain issues, they also followed broadly the same playbook
Liberal economics, free trade, expansionist foreign policy but Trump really is something different. An insurgent candidate, he was never expected to win the Republican nomination in 2014 let alone the US presidency.
A brash billionaire and political novice, not an establishment figure, not rooted in either political party he has actually shifted fundamental US policy.
Moving away from free trade, reducing foreign conflicts, openly criticising the US defence establishment for starting wars.
Globally these moves have had both benefits and drawbacks.
More US isolationism means fewer people worldwide have felt the heavy weight of American bombs and drones. China has been freer to act and negotiate directly with other Asian nations as the US deprioritised links with the rest of the world.
On the other hand, many nations see that an important ally, trading partner and hedge against Chinese influence has become increasingly distant.
This has left many of the USA’s Asian allies confused and with little choice but to draw closer to China.
Domestically Trump has proved extremely divisive. The US media has been virulently opposed to his presidency and some have argued that he has been encouraging far right and racist elements.
Ironically, his support among minority voters seems to have increased. But as America has been racked by Covid-19, Trump has been accused of not doing enough to stem the spread of the virus.
As election day approaches, domestic issues take centre stage. The election will hinge on whether Americans want to continue down Trump’s maverick path or return to the fold of the well-oiled establishment.
For us in Asia, we don’t have a choice – but we can certainly have a preference.
Trump’s isolationism forces us to work together and rely less on the USA. From Singapore’s perspective, I suspect a Joe Biden win would be preferable.
The Singapore government prefers stability and enjoys a close relationship with the USA. Trump isn’t so interested in maintaining these old alliances and his aggressive stance on China also causes difficulties for Singapore.
However, as a silver lining — Trump’s relative lack of overseas awareness means that Singapore can arguably increase its own co-operation and deepen business links with China without facing too much scrutiny.
For Malaysia too, a distracted Trump might be a blessing. An empowered State Department under Biden may begin to force Asian nations to choose between the US and China – which isn’t a choice many want to make.
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
