NEW YORK, Oct 30 — Oil prices will be hemmed in the US$40-45 (RM166.14 — RM186.91) per barrel range for the rest of the year, a Reuters poll showed today, with analysts expecting a rough road to recovery into 2021 as an accelerating coronavirus outbreak fans renewed demand concerns.
A survey of 41 economists and analysts forecast global benchmark Brent crude prices to average US$42.32 a barrel in 2020, slightly down from the US$42.48 forecast in the previous poll and the US$42.45 average so far this year.
The outlook for 2021 was also reduced to US$49.76 a barrel from last month’s US$50.41 consensus.
A resumption in Libyan supply could further pressure prices, analysts said, while markets are bracing for the November 3 US elections.
“The two major factors remaining in 2020 that could break the current range are the US elections and surprisingly good vaccine news,” said David Olzant, an analyst at Raiffeisen.
“A Biden victory could spark supply-side worries over shale, but also a more lenient policy regarding Iran could spark oversupply fears,” he added.
The survey forecast US WTI crude futures to average US$38.53 a barrel in 2020, versus September’s US$38.70 consensus.
“In the US, production has recently been increased again, and with a further stabilisation of the situation in Libya, an important oil exporter could regain its former strength,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
Clouding the outlook further, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allies plan to increase production by 2 million barrels per day from January 2021 after record output cuts earlier this year.
But a second Covid-19 wave is slowing demand and will complicate efforts by producers to balance the market, the International Energy Agency said.
While a recovery in demand would continue, it will be uneven and at a slower pace over the coming months, until an effective vaccine becomes widely available, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. — Reuters
