Sterling regains lost ground after BoE negative rate talk

An English £5 note and coins are seen at a restaurant in the British overseas territory of Gibraltar in this picture released October 5, 2016. — Reuters pic
An English £5 note and coins are seen at a restaurant in the British overseas territory of Gibraltar in this picture released October 5, 2016. — Reuters pic

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LONDON, Sept 17 — The pound fell sharply today after the Bank of England said it had briefed monetary policymakers on how a negative interest rate could be brought in, before recovering most of the lost ground in later trading.

The Bank of England kept its main stimulus programmes on hold, as expected, and said that Britain’s economy had performed better than expected.

Highlighting risks relating to rising Covid-19 cases, the unwinding of jobs protection schemes, and Brexit, the BoE said it was ready to take further action.

The bank also said that policymakers had been briefed on how a negative rate could be implemented “should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it at some point during this period of low equilibrium rates.”

“It is clear that they are examining and lining up the tools they can deploy including more quantitative easing and negative rates if the economy diverges from their central scenario,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale.

The BoE said that their base case is an “immediate, orderly move to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union on 1 January 2021”.

“Now if that does not happen they will have no option but to respond,” said Broux. “Sterling is a sell on rallies until there is a deal with the EU.”

Sterling fell as much as 0.7 per cent against the dollar in the ten minutes after the meeting minutes were released, then extended losses to as low as US$1.2866.

Money markets ramped up their expectations of British interest rates entering negative territory.

Futures contracts maturing in February 2021 were pricing in policy rates falling below zero for the first time compared to March 2021 earlier.

By 1457 GMT, the pound was at US$1.2947, down just 0.1 per cent on the day, while euro-sterling was up 0.1 per cent at 0.9118.

Brexit talks were thrown into disarray by Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposing legislation that would break international law by breaching parts of the Withdrawal Agreement relating to Northern Ireland.

The bill is moving through parliament this week.

US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden warned the UK that it must honour its commitments to Northern Ireland, or there would be no post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and United States. — Reuters

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