VIENNA, March 31 — Austrian economic growth will fall more than three per cent this year in a “moderate” coronavirus pandemic response scenario, the country’s central bank said today, while emphasising that it is still too soon to give a reliable forecast.
Austria has closed schools, restaurants, bars, theatres and other gathering places, including non-essential shops. People have been told to stay at home and work from there if possible. Most of those measures are in place until Easter Monday, April 13, and are widely expected to be extended for a long time.
“First estimates by ONB forecasters point to a sharp decline in real GDP in Austria by more than 3 per cent in a moderate Covid-19 scenario,” Austrian National Bank (ONB) Governor Robert Holzmann said in a statement issued by the central bank.
Economic think-tank Wifo last week predicted a 2.5 per cent fall in gross domestic product (GDP) if lockdown measures are eased in May and the situation returns to normal in the summer.
The ONB’s forecast was based on most lockdown measures being listed in the second quarter.
“Should this assumption not materialize, the forecast would have to be revised downward significantly,” Holzmann said in the statement, adding that the current forecast was “subject to a high degree of uncertainty” and it was too early to reliably assess the pandemic’s impact on the economy.
Holzmann also sits on the European Central Bank’s Governing Council. In the statement, the ONB conceded that the outbreak had taken the ECB’s attention away from its ongoing policy review.
“The Eurosystem is currently reviewing its monetary policy strategy. This review process has now somewhat receded to the background as the current problems caused by the corona crisis have taken precedence,” the central bank said.
The ONB plans to invite representatives of Austrian labour, business and other institutions to give their views on the ECB’s monetary policy at an event in early July “if possible”, it said. — Reuters
