JAKARTA, April 25 — With Indonesia’s central bank failing to stem the slide in the currency to a two-year low this week, bets of a rate hike are increasing.
PT Bank Mandiri expects the central bank to increase rates as early as this quarter to curb an exodus of investors from the country’s stocks and bonds, while PT Bank Central Asia says it will be difficult to go against the global trend of tightening monetary policy.
Indonesia’s rupiah tumbled to a two-year low against the dollar this week despite the central bank intervening in the market since early February to ease heightened volatility. That’s raised concern that Bank Indonesia may be trying in vain to defend the currency as emerging markets face pressure from a surging US dollar.
“The Federal Reserve may accelerate its plan to increase its rate because economic data is good in the US and inflation is picking up there,” said Bank Mandiri President Director Kartika Wirjoatmodjo. “If Indonesia doesn’t respond, we will be seen as lagging behind. That will trigger a selloff in bonds and equities.”
Worst performers
The Indonesian currency along with the Philippine peso and Indian rupee are among the underperformers among developing economies globally this year. With US 10-year Treasury yields breaching 3 per cent yesterday, the rupiah may face renewed selling pressure.
The rupiah was little changed today. It has lost more than 2 per cent against the US dollar in 2018.
Bank Indonesia signaled a more hawkish tone last week when it left rates unchanged as inflation has been subdued and the current-account deficit well within its target. It last moved in September when it cut rates to support growth.
The losses for rupiah would have been greater had Bank Indonesia not made a "sizeable" intervention in the currency and bond markets, according to Governor Agus Martowardojo, who pledged to take more action.
The central bank may raise interest rates earlier than forecast because of tightening monetary policy elsewhere in the world and the rupiah volatility, according to Enrico Tanuwidjaja, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Jakarta, who had penciled an increase in the fourth quarter.
But there are others who see another rate cut should the rupiah stabilize.
“Provided we see the currency stabilize, which we think is probably quite likely, then I wouldn’t rule out another cut,” said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist with Capital Economics Ltd in London.
Bank Indonesia is fighting a broad-based depreciation in currencies as global interest rates are on an upward trend, said Jahja Setiaatmadja, president director of Bank Central Asia.
“Sometimes, it’s difficult to challenge the current unless Bank Indonesia wants to keep intervening with the risk of declining foreign reserves,” Setiaatmadja said. “It’s a difficult decision, but that’s the market.” — Bloomberg
