KUALA LUMPUR, March 1 — Barisan Nasional (BN) could possibly win in the Semenyih by-election tomorrow as its rival Pakatan Harapan (PH) is seen as being on the defensive, Ilham Centre said today.
With Malay voters forming the majority of Semenyih voters at about 68 per cent, research firm Ilham Centre observed that PH was seen as struggling to retain Malay votes in the seat, while Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s “Bossku” campaign was perceived as boosting BN’s chances.
“PH now needs a magic formula, namely the percentage of voter turnout and the maintaining of voter support levels as in the past 14th general election.
“If this does not happen, BN can have a slim victory in Semenyih,” Ilham Centre’s executive director Azlan Zainal said in a statement today, following a three-day survey of Semenyih voters.
Ilham Centre highlighted the key to the results tomorrow would hinge on whether PH fulfils the expectations of the middle-class Malay voters in Semenyih who are critical and rational when deciding on voting.
It pointed out that this segment of Malay voters in Semenyih’s urban and semi-urban areas had enabled PH’s win of the Selangor state seat last May, noting that their “swing” towards PH then was due to their rejection of Najib and the then BN government’s weaknesses.
But in sign of how the situation has changed, Ilham Centre said BN now appears to be at a vantage point of controlling the narrative by highlighting the alleged weaknesses of the current PH government, and playing with the sentiments of the Malay-Muslim community, while Najib’s campaign is also seen as potentially changing how Malays vote this time.
“If this is successfully done with the pulling back of Malay votes towards BN, then BN may pull off a surprise in the contest this time,” it said.
BN and Najib
Ilham Centre noted that BN appears to be keeping up its momentum with its recent win of the Cameron Highlands by-election, with its machinery seemingly more organised and with its control of social media giving it an edge in tomorrow’s polls.
“As the opposition, BN’s attacks are focused on raising the failure of the PH government in fulfilling the promises in their manifesto. The elements of religion and race completes the recipe to restore Malay voter support that shifted in the last general election,” it said.
Ilham Centre said Najib’s “Bossku” campaign has also caught the attention of the Semenyih locals, with his own campaign there indirectly adding value to BN and could also be said to be “significant” in helping the coalition.
“Findings showed 56.6 per cent agree that Najib Razak’s campaign in Semenyih gives a positive effect towards BN,” Ilham Centre said.
PH and its unity, candidate
Ilham Centre observed that PH had yet to resolve its problem of creating an integrated polling machinery among its four component parties for an orderly attack on its rival, noting that voters could see that the arrangement of campaign programmes and coordination of machinery did not reflect PH’s status as a ruling party.
“In Semenyih, PH does not have a central command that arranges the pattern for placing of campaign machinery, narratives for issues to be brought and to refute attacks from rivals.
“PH machinery seems to be overly dependent on Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in mobilising the campaign movement here,” it said, referring to the president of PH party Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.
Ilham Centre also said the series of campaigns involving PH leaders did not have a big impact on voters, except for the last round of ceramahs featuring PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and PPBM chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
As for PH’s candidate Aiman Zainali, Ilham Centre said its survey showed that he was only accepted by 34.4 per cent of those polled, which it noted showed he was not able to convince them.
Describing Aiman as lacking the “aura” to be PH’s candidate, Ilham Centre said the efforts by the party machinery in arranging his campaign programmes and his own efforts were unable to lift up his name.
Ilham Centre said the attention of voters shifted instead to BN’s candidate Zakaria Hanafi, with “maturity” of the candidate being a measuring stick for voters.
Ilham Centre based its findings through its survey from February 26 to February 28, where it met 378 respondents in Semenyih covering all ethnic groups, gender and age groups and locality, with the stratified random sampling method giving a margin of 2.15 per cent.
