KUALA LUMPUR, May 9 ― Social media observers may be led to believe that Malaysian voters are highly invested in topics such as hudud, child pornography and marital rape.
On Twitter and Facebook, politicians and their followers as well as activists debate regularly and heatedly on these and other highbrow topics ranging from human rights to democracy and corruption.
“But the average citizen, especially in a place like Rompin which is heavily populated by farmers who are not very rich, a place like Permatang Pauh with factory workers and low level administration employees ― these people are facing a tough time right now,” said Ibrahim Suffian of Merdeka Center.
Far from being invested in philosophical issues such as the push for hudud, he said Malaysians’ concerns were more prosaic.
According to Ibrahim, Malaysians were more likely to care about how falling commodity prices were hurting the economy or how Putrajaya was managing its debt and spending amid falling revenue.
“Food prices are higher, ringgit is weaker, GST; there's a lot of pocketbook issues. They're not really concerned about political Islam or philosophy,” the director of the independent pollster told Malay Mail Online today.
The lack of confidence in how the country and its finances were being managed, particularly with the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), was why voters want a strong opposition to keep the government in check, Ibrahim added.
In it stronghold of Rompin on Tuesday, Barisan Nasional (BN) kept the seat but saw its majority fall to 6,200 votes ― almost halved from Election 2013 ― as voter turnout dipped to 74 per cent versus 86 per cent from two years ago.
Comparatively, PAS saw its vote tally drop by just 25.
On Thursday, PKR won in its stronghold of Permatang Pauh by 8,841 votes or just under 3,000 fewer than Election 2013, also on the back of a lower turnout of 74 per cent.
Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng said uncertainty and the effects of the unpopular GST coupled with the unfavourable perception of alleged abuse at state-owned firm 1Malaysia Development Berhad caused a “reluctance” among voters to continue supporting BN.
With many urban voters not returning for the by-elections, what was left was the traditional BN supporters from the local rural community who are most affected in their day-to-day living by GST and socio-economic issues, he said.
“Definitely reluctance to vote for BN, undeniably there has been a shift in BN’s Malay support,” he told Malay Mail Online when describing the impact of GST on the two by-elections.
Political analyst Dr Shaharuddin Badaruddin said hudud was a secondary issue to GST during the Rompin and Permatang Pauh by-elections, noting that BN’s attempts to campaign against its rivals Pakatan Rakyat using the debate over the strict Islamic penal code was unsuccessful.
“Definitely GST is in their (the voters’) mind, that's why we see BN can't push them to win Permatang Pauh and to push them to get more votes in Rompin,” the associate professor based at Universiti Selangor (Unisel) told Malay Mail Online.
He noted that another economic issue, the decline in the value of Felda Global Venture shares, was of particular importance in Rompin with its large population of Felda settlers and their families, topping the controversy over 1MDB.
Despite raging debates over child pornography and marital rape, Shaharuddin said such issues did not feature during by-elections, also observing that BN’s manifesto failed to capture as much attention as PR’s use of the GST to “play with the people’s emotions”.
“GST is connected to a lot of things ― abuse of power, wastage of spending of government and you talk about personal lifestyle of the PM and wife,” he said, adding that it was also tied to rising living costs and confusion from ministers’ contradicting messages on the tax’s effect.
But Prof Jayum A. Jawan cautioned that the two by-election results could not be simply taken to indicate that voters were casting their ballots based on bread-and-butter issues.
He argued that Rompin and Permatang Pauh were also barometers of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s level of support as well as an indicator of PKR and Pakatan Rakyat’s future.
Jayum said the lower support for BN in Rompin could be attributed to “general dissatisfaction” on a list of issues such as the GST, Umno president Najib’s leadership and his management of party affairs under criticism from former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and others.
While agreeing that PR had based its Permatang Pauh campaign on public unhappiness with the GST, Jayum believed voters were sending a different message.
“I think survival of PKR and Pakatan Rakyat was put to test in Permatang Pauh,” he said.
